The Philippine Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, on Wednesday (23rd September) lowered the number of votes needed to convict Vice President Sara Duterte, reducing the threshold prosecutors must clear to secure a guilty verdict.
The court ruled that only senator-judges able to participate in the trial should be counted when determining the conviction threshold. Four of the 24 senator-judges have been unable to participate in the proceedings and cannot vote. The ruling means prosecutors now need 14 votes instead of 16 to secure a conviction if 20 senator-judges are ultimately counted. This is because the Constitution requires a two-thirds vote to convict, and two-thirds of 20 is 13.33, which must be rounded up to 14.
The court’s ruling followed questions over senators who are unable to participate for legal, medical, or other reasons, including senators detained in connection with plunder cases and one senator who is beyond the authorities’ reach because of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant linked to the Duterte administration’s “war on drugs”.
Officials stressed that the interpretation applies only to Duterte’s impeachment trial and does not automatically establish a binding rule for future impeachment proceedings. However, the ruling could affect the number of votes required if additional senator-judges become legally or factually unable to participate before the final judgment.
13 lawmakers voted in favour of the ruling. Six senator-judges, most of whom are seen as Duterte’s allies and have long been aligned with her camp, did not participate in the vote. One senator, presiding officer Francis Escudero, cast the sole dissenting vote. He accepted the outcome as the court’s controlling ruling for the remaining proceedings while noting his objection to it.
“The vote may also offer a glimpse of how the final (impeachment) voting could go, although nothing is assured at this time. Senators still have to weigh the evidence, and, admittedly, weigh public opinion,” said Ederson Tapia, public administration professor at the University of Makati. “But if I were Vice President Duterte, I would be concerned.”
“This is the best chance to secure a conviction,” said Michael Henry Yusingco, a senior research fellow at the Ateneo Policy Center in Manila, referring to the court’s decision to lower the voting threshold.
After the ruling, Duterte’s lawyers said the vice president “does not shrink from accountability, nor does she fear the outcome of this impeachment trial”, but said her participation in the trial would be undertaken “with caution”. They added that she reserved the right to pursue all legal remedies available under the law while continuing to seek what they described as a fair and impartial trial.
The trial follows a high-profile fallout between Duterte and her former ally and running mate, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, and could shape the 2028 presidential election, which Duterte intends to contest. Marcos, limited by the constitution to a single term, has said he will endorse a candidate for the presidency but has not yet decided whom to back. Duterte has been leading or performing strongly in early opinion polls, but polling measurements should not be treated as predictions of the election outcome. If convicted, she would be removed from office and barred from holding political office, preventing her from running in the 2028 presidential election. An acquittal would leave her in office and eligible to continue her presidential bid.
Duterte stands accused of misusing public funds, amassing unexplained wealth, and threatening the lives of Marcos, the first lady, and a former House Speaker. She denies wrongdoing. She also faces separate criminal charges of grave threats arising from alleged threats against Marcos and his family, which she denies, and is out on bail. A trial court ordered her arrest over three counts of grave threats in September and set bail at 120,000 pesos for each count.
Marcos and Duterte won office in 2022 on a joint “UniTeam” ticket, securing a landslide victory after bringing together two of the Philippines’ most powerful political dynasties. Their alliance later unravelled amid escalating disputes over policy, power, and control of Congress. Reuters has described the split between the two former allies as a major political feud, while the current impeachment trial is another significant development in their confrontation.
The House prosecution panel has presented its case on the articles of impeachment, while the defence has reserved its rights and insisted on procedural fairness throughout. Legal experts continue to monitor how the adjusted numerical threshold applies to the constitutional requirement for the concurrence of two-thirds of the Senate. Senators must still weigh the full record of testimony and documents before casting any decisive votes.
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