Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s broad coalition has given him near-unchecked power for two years, but mass food poisoning and corruption linked to his flagship free meals programme are now posing the first serious test of support for the former special forces commander.
Two political parties in the coalition have decided to distance themselves from the programme following internal discussions, senior members of both parties with knowledge of the talks told Reuters. A member of a third coalition party said it feared problems with the scheme would damage its electoral prospects.
Together, the parties represented by the three sources account for more than a quarter of the coalition’s 80% parliamentary majority. The coalition includes seven of the eight parties in parliament, while Subianto’s Gerindra party holds 15% of the seats. The sources asked not to be identified because they feared repercussions for criticising the president’s policies.
“Loyalty must also have limits,” a member of one party, which was once a vocal defender of the programme, told Reuters.
Subianto made providing free, nutritious meals a cornerstone of his election campaign, promising to reach 83 million children and pregnant women. However, repeated food poisoning incidents, logistical challenges and allegations of corruption have prompted growing public criticism of the multibillion-dollar initiative.
A poll conducted in early October by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) found that about 62% of the public opposed the programme, while approval of Subianto himself fell to its lowest level since he took office.
“What are the limits? The survival of our party,” the party member said, adding that internal polls showed the party’s electability had declined in July compared with January. The source provided no further details of the confidential survey, which was intended for internal party use only.
“If by mid-2027 there are no improvements, the coalition will be fragile and things may eventually fall apart on their own,” they said. Indonesia’s next elections are due in early 2029.
Subianto, who marks two years in office this week, has faced little or no political resistance during his presidency. No lawmakers have voted against government bills in parliament, including members of the one party that is not formally part of the ruling bloc. The president has also faced no parliamentary speeches critical of his policies.
However, tensions within the coalition have grown as Subianto’s approval rating has declined. According to SMRC, his rating fell from 81% in November last year to 66.4% in March, 51% in July, and 44.5% in October. Positive opinions of the free meals programme also fell from 62% last November to just over a third in the latest poll.
The scheme has faced mounting scrutiny over its implementation. In June, authorities arrested a former programme chief and two other officials on corruption charges. On 31st August, dozens of families filed a police complaint against the government, marking the first legal action over the initiative, which began in January 2025.
Early last month, about 1,700 people fell ill in four separate incidents after eating the meals, bringing the total number of food poisoning cases since the programme’s launch to at least 57,000.
The president’s office and the National Nutrition Agency (NNA), which runs the initiative, did not respond to requests for comment.
Sugiat Santoso, a Gerindra spokesperson, said the coalition remained strong and that the programme was not intended to secure electoral gains.
“Every political party has its own targets and we respect that … Whatever their stance, related to free meals or not, supporting Subianto or not, we respect it,” Santoso said, adding that the NNA was working to improve the programme.
The National Mandate Party, one of the six parties in Subianto’s coalition, said it remained committed to supporting the initiative. Any shortcomings should be addressed “systematically and collectively”, said Viva Yoga Mauladi, the party’s deputy chief. The other parties did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
A senior member of a second coalition party said more voters were complaining about the programme. The party had asked its lawmakers to begin offering “constructive public criticism” of the scheme using “polite language”, the source said.
Both parties whose senior members said they intended to express concerns publicly also wanted to press the government to improve the programme.
Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka recently apologised publicly for the food poisoning cases and visited some affected children. Gibran is the son of Joko Widodo, who defeated Subianto in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections. Widodo’s backing was key to Subianto finally winning the presidency in 2024.
Subianto has defended the initiative despite mounting criticism. In February, he played down the food poisoning incidents, saying the number of cases was statistically insignificant.
“99.99% of the programme can be considered successful,” Raka said.
In August, he pledged to make improvements. “I am determined to continue the free nutritious programme but with improvements and efficiency,” Raka said.
The programme has also created wider political pressure for coalition parties, whose ministers face criticism and attacks on social media when discussing the scheme, said Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a senior visiting fellow at Singapore’s Yusof Ishak Institute. Failure would be a “major blow” to Subianto because the initiative was central to his 2024 election campaign, he added.
“Subianto could revise his policy by making the programme more targeted, so it would be more feasible to manage and would not incur such a high budget. However, it appears he has not significantly changed the universal design, proven by the programme’s very large budget allocation next year,” Muhtadi said.
The government has budgeted 240 trillion rupiah for the scheme next year.
The controversy comes as Subianto faces wider economic challenges, including the cost of living and a warning from MSCI that Indonesia could be excluded from its stock market indices, potentially cutting the country off from international capital.
“Subianto must demonstrate commitment and integrity, not only make statements,” said Mohammad Ezha Fachriza Roshady, an SMRC researcher.
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