Singapore residents are projected to spend S$1.05 billion (US$810 million) more a year in Johor Bahru once the Johor Bahru–Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link opens, widening Singapore’s net outbound spending gap, a study released on Thursday (16t July) has found.
Johor Bahru visitors, in comparison, are expected to spend S$756 million more in Singapore annually. This leaves Singapore with a S$290 million net increase in outbound spending each year, equivalent to 0.4% of the country’s total retail and food and beverage sales in 2025. The study also projects a 51% increase in outbound trips by Singapore consumers, adding 11.2 million Singapore–Johor Bahru round trips a year. Trips in the other direction are expected to grow by 3.3 million.
The study was commissioned by the Singapore Business Federation (SBF), the Restaurant Association of Singapore, and the Singapore Retailers Association to assess how the RTS Link, set to open in January 2027, could affect consumer spending, tourism flows, and business competitiveness in Singapore’s retail and F&B sectors. About 1,700 Singapore consumers and 400 Johor Bahru consumers were surveyed in March this year, with historical credit card spending and government statistics also used to estimate the link’s potential impact.
Groceries are expected to account for the largest share of outbound spending, followed by drugstores. Dining ranks third, while beauty services complete the top categories drawing Singapore consumers across the border.
SBF Chief Executive Officer Mr Kok Ping Soon said the RTS Link will create opportunities for Singapore businesses to attract more visitors but also raises competitive pressure, especially for the retail and F&B sectors.
“Businesses must adapt beyond price competition by strengthening their offerings, experiences, and productivity, while industry and government must work together to help them compete in a more connected cross-border market,” Mr Kok said. “Many are already under pressure from manpower constraints, rental costs, and operating costs, and the RTS Link adds another layer of competitive pressure, which is structural.”
Heartland retailers in Woodlands, close to the future RTS terminus, told CNA earlier this year they were worried the link could send more shoppers to Malaysia, adding to pressures from slowing sales, rising costs, and weaker consumer spending. Lower prices on groceries and dining in Malaysia have long attracted Singaporeans, and easier access via the new link could amplify this trend.
The RTS Link is expected to significantly enhance connectivity between the two cities and handle substantial daily passenger volumes once operational in January 2027. Construction progress has remained on track despite various global challenges, according to updates from transport authorities earlier in 2026.
The study’s authors note the shift carries both risks and opportunities: while outbound spending is set to rise sharply, the increase in inbound visitors from Johor Bahru could benefit Singapore businesses that differentiate themselves through unique offerings, better experiences, or higher productivity. With manpower shortages and high operating costs already straining many small and medium-sized enterprises, industry groups say collaboration between businesses, associations, and government bodies will be essential to maintaining competitiveness as the market becomes more integrated.
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