Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has claimed victory in a snap general election after his conservative Bhumjaithai Party emerged with a commanding lead, a result analysts say could ease months of political turbulence.
Early figures from the Election Commission, with nearly 80% of polling stations reporting, placed Bhumjaithai well ahead in the three way race. A pre election survey by the National Institute for Development Administration projected the party would secure between 140 and 150 seats in the 500 member House of Representatives, compared with 125 to 135 for the progressive People’s Party and a third place finish for Pheu Thai.
As counting progressed to 31% completion late on Sunday, Bhumjaithai was on track for 178 constituency seats. The People’s Party followed with 70, Pheu Thai with 67, and the Klatham Party with 59.
“We are likely to take first place in the election,” Anutin told reporters at his party headquarters in Bangkok. “The victory today belongs to all Thais, no matter whether you voted for us or not.”
Speaking later, he added, “We have done everything that we can. We hope the people will have confidence in us.”
After casting his vote in Bhumjaithai’s stronghold of Buriram city, northeast of Bangkok, Anutin said, “We regard this as an order from the people, who want the party to help advance the country sustainably and solve the problems that trouble the people. We have received your signal clearly. We are ready to govern with honesty, uphold the democratic system with the King as Head of State, and act in the interests of the nation and the people.”
Nationalism and the snap poll
The election was called in mid December 2025 amid economic strain and uncertainty in Thailand’s vital tourism sector. It followed escalating border tensions with Cambodia that reignited fighting on 7 December in a 30 minute clash between Cambodian and Thai forces. The confrontation displaced communities, drew international concern, and heightened nationalist sentiment.
Although a ceasefire was agreed on 27 December, analysts said Anutin, who had been in office for less than 100 days, moved quickly to capitalise on the surge in patriotism.
Weakening of Pheu Thai
Anutin’s rise followed the removal of his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Pheu Thai, in August 2025. Thailand’s Constitutional Court dismissed her over an ethics violation linked to a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s senate president during the border crisis.
The ruling dealt a major blow to the Shinawatra family, which has dominated Thai politics for more than two decades. Paetongtarn’s father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is currently serving a one year prison sentence for corruption and abuse of power.
People’s Party concedes defeat
The People’s Party, which succeeded the dissolved Move Forward party that won the 2023 election by a landslide, campaigned on promises of structural reform to Southeast Asia’s second largest economy. Led by 38 year old entrepreneur Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, it had topped opinion polls earlier in the campaign but softened its reform agenda after Move Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court for allegedly attempting to overthrow the monarchy.
Despite leading party list votes with 2.16 million at the partial count, Natthaphong conceded early.
“We acknowledge that we did not come first,” he told reporters in Bangkok. “We stand by our principle of respecting the party that finishes first and its right to form the government.”
He added that his party would not join a Bhumjaithai led coalition. “If Bhumjaithai can form a government, then we have to be the opposition,” he said. “We will be in the opposition because I earlier said that I would not vote for Bhumjaithai to lead the next government.”
Coalition talks and constitutional reform
Before the vote, analysts expected a close result and difficult coalition negotiations. Thailand has seen three prime ministers in under three years since the 2023 election and has experienced 13 successful military coups since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932. The country has adopted 20 constitutions over the same period, most following coups.
A source within Bhumjaithai said the party could form a coalition with Pheu Thai and Klatham, led by Narumon Pinyosinwat and secretary general Thamanat Prompow, giving the bloc more than 300 MPs. Anutin declined to outline formation plans, saying decisions would be made once final results are confirmed.
If reported figures hold, the proposed “pack of four” would include Anutin as prime minister, Ekniti Nitithanprapas as deputy prime minister and finance minister, Suphajee Suthumpun as commerce minister, and Sihasak Phuangketkeow as foreign affairs minister.
Voters also took part in a referendum on replacing the 2017 military backed constitution, criticised for concentrating power in unelected institutions such as the senate. Early results showed nearly two thirds backing a new charter. A majority approval would require parliament to begin a multi stage drafting process, followed by two further referendums.
“I believe that the party that wins in the next election will have an outsized influence on the direction of constitutional reform,” said Napon Jatusripitak of the Thailand Future think tank, “whether we move away from the junta drafted constitution or not.”
The result reduces the immediate risk of renewed instability, though the direction of reform will depend on coalition dynamics as Thailand navigates economic pressure and lingering regional tensions.
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